Nuclear Suppliers Group - an opportunity lost

1. India’s bid to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) – a 48-country cartel that controls nuclear exports – failed recently during the group’s plenary session.

2. India underestimated opposition from countries like Austria, Brazil, Ireland, and Switzerland – countries with strong nonproliferation credentials uncomfortable with a non-NPT member like India joining the NSG.

3. NPT (nuclear nonproliferation treaty) was signed in 1968 to prevent spread of nuclear materials, technology and weapons and to develop co-operation among the nations. This treaty was signed by a total of 191 countries except for India, South Sudan, Israel and Pakistan. This treaty recognised two groups of countries namely the NWS(nuclear weapon States) comprising US, UK ,China, France and Russia and the other being NNWS(non-nuclear weapon States).

3. Applicant countries must be signatories of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT).

4. If India had not lost this opportunity of being a member of the NSG, it would have also meant that India would have far greater access to uranium than it does currently under its 2008 agreement with the US.

5. NSG membership also means India can begin to commercially produce nuclear power equipment, which it can then even sell to other countries. With access to state-of-the-art nuclear technologies, it can maximize its production benefits.

6. Access to technology and being allowed to produce nuclear equipment will give a boost to the Make in India programme announced by PM Modi. That will boost economic growth in India, create more jobs and even lead to a whole new IT-industry segment that India can leverage.

7. With India committed to meeting its climate change goals by reducing dependence on fossil fuels, India needs to step up nuclear power production. NSG membership will help India greatly in doing so. In 2008, India did a get a one-time waiver from the NSG that allowed it to buy nuclear power plants from the global market. Still, being out of the elite NSG group has meant that many latest technologies are still out of its reach as it is the NSG members that have the latest and the most efficient technology.

8. New Delhi may have tried to expose Chinese behaviour to a domestic audience to resolve what some see as an “under balancing” problem. India’s strategic and diplomatic establishment reportedly remains divided both over China’s intentions and whether to upset the status quo. After China’s overt rejection of India’s NSG bid, the gulf between cautious non-aligners and aggressive counter-balancers may narrow and allow Indian strategic elites to coalesce around a more cohesive China strategy.

9. India may have believed fighting this round would enhance learning to improve its chances in a future round – losing a battle but setting itself up to eventually win the war. Rejection may sting, but clarifies where support and opposition comes from, and which countries to diplomatically target for persuasion or bargaining.

10. Nevertheless, India had an opportunity to learn from this episode, and whatever narrative it internalises will bear implications for its future strategic behaviour.